Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, is a professor of economics at Harvard University, where he is also Director of the Center for International Development.
Under pressure from China and other governments, the World Bank is considering discontinuing its Doing Business report. It has asked Trevor Manuel, a long-time South African cabinet minister, to lead a commission to look into the matter.
Doing Business – the brainchild of, among others, my Harvard colleague Andrei Shleifer and Simeon Djankov,
a World Bank staffer who later became Bulgaria’s finance minister –
measures such indicators as the time and cost required to register a
business, pay taxes, trade across borders, obtain a loan, get a
construction license, or enforce a contract. The data are provided by
law firms, which complete a questionnaire about the legal and
administrative requirements of performing these tasks.
The
project emerged from a research question that goes to the heart of the
debate on the proper role and actual motivations of the state in
regulating markets: Does regulation exist to achieve some laudable
social goal or mainly to extract rents? This question has long divided
economists along a right-left axis, at least since University of Chicago
economists George Stigler and Milton Friedman argued that many, if not
most, regulations were motivated by rent-seeking among bureaucrats and
business incumbents.
The Doing Business
project calculates dozens of separate indicators that are then averaged
into a single number. As with all numerical indicators that try to
express a very complex reality, there is always room for improvement.
I,
for one, find the underlying indicators more informative than the
average. Averaging the numbers assumes that all components are
substitutes: if you cannot improve on one, you can compensate by
improving on another. But I think of them as complements: if you cannot
build your plant, you do not benefit from more accommodating trade
rules. A single problem can be fatal, even if other indicators are
strong.
Moreover, Doing Business
measures the burden of compliance with regulations, not their
effectiveness. The indicators do not penalize a country that cheaply and
expeditiously authorizes shoddy construction projects, dangerous
imports, or abusive labor practices.
Nevertheless,
the burdens in some countries are so obvious that they could hardly be
explained as the consequence of anything other than ineptitude or
predation. By making visible some government inefficiencies, the report
has galvanized pressure to streamline procedures, with many countries
adopting policies to reduce the burden that their regulations place on
their citizens.
The
indices name and shame poor performers, so it is no surprise that these
countries – like China, which is ranked 91st – object to Doing Business.
This should be reason enough to continue the report; indeed, the fact
that China has the world’s highest investment rate suggests that,
despite the Doing Business indicators, it is possible to do business there.
The
idea of creating and publishing an index with country rankings is a
strategy adopted by many organizations and social movements to raise
awareness about issues such as corruption, governance, freedom, gender equality, competitiveness, productive knowhow, and the investment climate, among others. The main problem with these indices is not so much how they are calculated as how they are used.
In
general, such indices work best as a catalyst for debate about an
issue. By contrast, they work very badly when viewed as a policy
framework. It is common – but almost never wise – to think that the goal
of policy should be to improve countries’ rankings.
For example, in a recent paper,
Shleifer and his co-authors measured government effectiveness by
mailing letters to non-existent business addresses in 159 countries and
measuring how long it took for the letters to be returned – or whether
they were returned at all. They found that this indicator correlated
very well with many other governance indicators.
Typically,
countries that are bad at running a post office are also bad at running
other organizations. But it does not follow that if a country wants to
improve government effectiveness it should focus on returning wrongly
addressed letters promptly.
This point applies to the Doing Business report. For example, to measure the difficulty of dealing with licenses, Doing Business’s indicators
examine the burden of obtaining a permit to build a warehouse. But
firms must deal with licenses in many areas – such as medical devices
and drugs, radio stations, mines, bars, banks, insurance companies,
airlines, and taxis – that are not included in the report’s indicators,
even though they may be major obstacles to doing business. Countries
that regard raising their ranking as a policy goal have no incentive to
improve licensing procedures in any of these other areas.
Moreover, in the Atlas of Economic Complexity,
my co-authors and I show that these indicators are weakly related, if
at all, to economic growth. Improving on them does not foretell more
economic dynamism.
Many countries – including Colombia, Liberia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia – have at some point made improvement in the Doing Business ranking, or that of the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, a policy goal. This distracted them from focusing on what is important rather than on what was included in the index.
Countries
should, instead, focus on the ultimate goal: generating a rapid
increase in the number of productive jobs. The challenge consists in
finding ways to get there, and is best addressed through rich and deep
interactions between government and society. International benchmarks
may be useful for getting an idea of achievable performance in a
particular area; the more, the better. But the key is to improve on the
areas that matter, regardless of whether existing global indicators
cover them.
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