Umair Haque
Sometimes,
when I write scary essays, I encourage you not to read them. This one’s
different. It’s going to be brutal, scary, jarring, and alarming. But
if you want my thoughts on the future, then read away.
It strikes me that the planet’s fate is now probably sealed. We have just a decade in which to control climate change — or
goodbye, an unknown level of catastrophic, inescapable, runaway warming
is inevitable. The reality is: we’re probably not going to make it.
It’s highly dubious at this juncture that humanity is going to win the
fight against climate change.
Yet
that is for a very unexpected — yet perfectly predictable — reason: the
sudden explosion in global fascism — which in turn is a consequence of
capitalism having failed as a model of global order. If, when, Brazil
elects a neo-fascist who plans to raze and sell off the Amazon — the
world’s lungs — then how do you suppose the fight against warming will
be won? It will be set back by decades — decades…we don’t have.
America’s newest Supreme Court justice is already striking down
environmental laws — in his first few days in office — but he will be on
the bench for life…beside a President who hasn’t just decimated the
EPA, but stacked it with the kind of delusional simpletons who think
global warming is a hoax. Again, the world is set by back by decades…it
doesn’t have. Do you see my point yet? Let me make it razor sharp.
My
friends, catastrophic climate change is not a problem for fascists — it
is a solution. History’s most perfect, lethal, and efficient one means
of genocide, ever, period. Who needs to build a camp or a gas chamber
when the flood and hurricane will do the dirty work for free? Please
don’t mistake this for conspiracism: climate change accords perfectly
with the foundational fascist belief that only the strong should
survive, and the weak — the dirty, the impure, the foul — should perish.
That is why neo-fascists do not lift a finger to stop climate
change — but do everything they can to in fact accelerate it, and
prevent every effort to reverse or mitigate it.
But
I want to tell you the sad, strange, terrible story of how we got here.
Call it a lament for a planet, if you like. You see, not so long ago,
we — the world — were optimistic that climate change could be managed,
in at least some way. The worst impacts probably avoided, forestalled,
escaped — if we worked together as a world. But now we are not so sure
at all. Why is that? What happened? Fascism happened — at precisely the
wrong moment. That shredded all our plans. But fascism happened because
capitalism failed — failed for the world, but succeeded wildly for
capitalists.
Now,
this will be a subtle story, because I want to tell it to you the way
it should be told. Let me begin with an example, and zoom out from
there.
The world is in the midst of a great mass extinction — one
of just a handful in history. Now, if we had been serious, at any
point, really, about preventing climate catastrophe, we would have made
an effort to “price in” this extinction — with a new set of global
measures for GDP and profit and costs and tariffs and taxes and so on.
But we didn’t, so all these dead beings, these animals and plants and
microbes and so on — strange and wonderful things we will never
know — are “unpriced” in the foolish, self-destructive economy we have
made. Life is literally free to capitalism, and so capitalism therefore
quite naturally abuses it and destroys it, in order to maximize its
profits, and that is how you get a spectacular, eerie, grim mass
extinction in half a century, of which there have only been five in all of previous history.
But
biological life was not the only unpaid cost — “negative
externality” — of capitalism. It was just one. And these unpaid costs
weren’t to be additive: they were to multiply, exponentiate, snarl upon
themselves — in ways that we would come to find impossible to then
untangle. (And all this was what economists and thinkers, especially
American ones, seemed to whistle at and walk away, anytime someone
suggested it.)
You
see, capitalism promised people — the middle classes which had come to
make up the modern world — better lives. But it had no intention of
delivering — its only goal was to maximize profits for the owners of
capital, not to make anyone else one iota richer. So
first it ate through people’s towns and cities and communities, then
through social systems, then through their savings, and finally, through
their democracies. Even if people’s incomes “rose”, cleverly,
the prices they paid for the very same things which capitalism sold back
to them with the other hand, the very things they were busy producing,
rose even more — and so middle classes began to stagnate, while
inequality exploded. Let’s specify the unpaid costs in question: trust,
connection, cohesion, belonging, meaning, purpose, truth itself.
These
were social costs — not environmental ones, like the mass extinction
above. And I will make the link between the two clear in just a moment.
First I want you to understand their effect.
A
sense of frustration, of resignation, of pessimism came to sweep the
world. People lost trust in their great systems and institutions. They
turned away from democracy, and towards authoritarianism, in a great,
thunderous wave, which tilted the globe on its very axis. The wave
rippled outward from history’s greatest epicenter of human stupidity,
America, like a supersonic tsunami, crossing Europe, reaching Asia’s
shores, crashing south into Brazil, cresting far away in Australia.
Nations fell like dominoes to a new wave of fascists, who proclaimed the
same things as the old ones — reichs and camps and reigns of the pure.
People began to turn on those below them — the powerless one, the
different one, the Mexican, the Jew, the Muslim— in the quest for just
the sense of superiority and power, the fortune and glory, capitalism
had promised them, but never delivered.
The
capitalists had gotten rich — unimaginably rich. They were richer than
kings of old. But capitalism had imploded into fascism. History laughed
at the foolishness of people who once again believed, like little
children hearing a fairy tale, that capitalism — which told people to
exploit and abuse one another, not hold each other close, mortal and
frail things that they are — was somehow ever going to benefit them.
Now.
Let me connect the dots of capitalism’s unpaid social and environmental
costs, and how they are linked, not additively, 2+2=5, but with the
mathematics of catastrophe.
When
we tell the story of how capitalism imploded into fascism, it will go
something like this: the social costs of capitalism meant that democracy
collapsed into neo-fascism — and neo-fascism made it unlikely, if not
outright impossible, that the world could do anything at all about
climate change, in the short window it had left, at the precise juncture
it needed to act most. Do you see the link? The terrible and tragic
irony? How funny and sad it is?
The
social costs of capitalism weren’t just additive to the environmental
costs — they were more like multiplicative, snarled upon themselves,
like a great flood meeting a great hurricane. The social costs
exponentiated the environmental, making them now impossible to reduce,
pay, address, manage. 2+2 didn’t equal 4 — it equalled infinity, in this
case. Both together made a system that spiralled out of control. Wham!
The planet’s fate was being sealed, by capitalism imploding into
fascism — which meant that a disintegrating world could hardly work
together anymore to solve its greatest problem of all.
Let
me sharpen all that a little. By 2005, after a great tussle, much of
the world had agreed on a plan to reduce carbon emissions — the Kyoto Protocol.
It was just barely enough — barely — to imagine that one day climate
change might be lessened and reduced enough to be manageable. Still,
there was one notable holdout — as usual, America. Now, at this point,
the world, which was in a very different place politically than it is
today, imagined that with enough of the usual diplomatic bickering and
horse-trading, maybe, just maybe, it would get the job done. And yet by
2010 or so, the point of all this, which was to create a global carbon
pricing system had still not been accomplished — in large part thanks to
America, whose unshakeable devotion to capitalism meant that such a
thing was simply politically impossible. So by this point the world was
behind — and yet, one could still imagine a kind of success. Maybe an
American President would come along who would see sense. Maybe progress
was going in the right direction, generally. After all, slowly, the
world was making headway, towards less carbon emissions, towards a
little more cooperation, here and there.
And
then — Bang! America was the first nation to fall to the neo fascist
wave. Instead of a President who might have taken the country into a
decarbonized future, Americans elected the king of the idiots (no,
please don’t give me an apologia for the electoral college.) This king
of the idiots did what kings of idiots do: he lionized, of all
things…coal. He questioned whether climate change was…real. He packed
the government with lobbyists and cronies who were quite happy to see
the world burn, if it meant a penthouse overlooking a drowned Central
Park. He broke up with allies, friends, and partners. Do you see the
point? The idea of a decarbonizing future was suddenly turned on its
head. It had been a possibility yesterday — but now, it was becoming an
impossibility.
Before
the neofascist wave, the world might have indeed “solved” climate
change. Maybe not in the hard sense that life would go on tomorrow as it
does today — but in the soft sense that the worst and most vicious
scenarios were mostly outlandish science fiction. That is because before
the neofascist wave, we could imagine nations cooperating, if slowly,
reluctantly, in piecemeal ways, towards things like protecting life,
reducing carbon, pricing in the environment, and so on. These things can
only be done through global cooperation, after all.
But
after the neofascist wave, global cooperation — especially of a
genuinely beneficial kind, not a predatory kind — began to become less
and less possible by the day. The world was unravelling.
When countries
were trashing the United Nations and humiliating their allies and
proclaiming how little they needed the world (all to score minor-league
wins for oligarchs, who cashed in their chips, laughing )— how could
such a globe cooperate more then? It couldn’t — and it can’t. So the
neofascist wave which we are now in also means drastically less global
cooperation — but less global cooperation means incalculably worse
climate change.
So
now let’s connect all the dots. Capitalism didn’t just rape the planet
laughing, and cause climate change that way. It did something which
history will think of as even more astonishing. By quite predictably
imploding into fascism at precisely the moment when the world needed
cooperation, it made it impossible, more or less, for the fight against
climate change to gather strength, pace, and force. It wasn’t just the
environmental costs of capitalism which melted down the planet — it was
the social costs, too, which, by wrecking global democracy,
international law, cooperation, the idea that nations should work
together, made a fractured, broken world which no longer had the
capability to act jointly to prevent the rising floodwaters and the
burning summers.
(Now,
it’s at this point that Americans will ask me, a little angrily, for
“solutions”. Ah, my friends. When will you learn? Don’t you remember my
point?
There
are no solutions, because these were never “problems” to begin with.
The planet, like society, is a garden, which needs tending, watering,
care. The linkages between these things — inequality destabilizing
societies making global cooperation less possible — are not things we
can fix overnight, by turning a nut or a bolt, or throwing money at
them. They never were. They are things we needed to see long ago, to
really reject together, and invest in, nurture, protect, defend, for
decades — so that capitalism did not melt down into fascism, and take
away all our power to fight for our worlds, precisely when we would need
it most.
But
we did not do that. We were busy “solving problems”. Problems like…hey,
how can I get my laundry done? Can I get my package delivered in one
hour instead of one day? Wow — you mean I don’t have to walk down the
street to get my pizza anymore? Amazing!! In this way, we solved all the
wrong problems, if you like, but I would say that we solved mechanical
problems instead of growing up as people. Things like climate change and
inequality and fascism are not really “problems” — they are emergent
processes, which join up, in great tendrils of ruin, each piling on the
next, which result from decades of neglect, inaction, folly, blindness.
We did not plant the seeds, or tend to our societies, economies,
democracies, or planet carefully enough — and now we are harvesting
bitter ruin instead. Maybe you see my point. Or maybe you don’t see my
point at all. I wouldn’t blame you. It’s a tough one to catch sight of.)
The
tables have turned. The problem isn’t climate change anymore, and the
solution isn’t global cooperation — at least given today’s implosive
politics. The problem is you — if you are not one of the chosen,
predatory few. And the solution to the problem of you is climate change.
To the fascists, that is. They are quite overjoyed to have found the
most spectacular and efficient and lethal engine of genocide and
devastation known to humankind, which is endless, free natural
catastrophe. Nothing sorts the strong from the weak more ruthlessly like
a flooded planet, a thundering sky, a forest in flames, a parched
ocean. A man with a gun is hardly a match for a planet on fire.
I
think this much becomes clearer by the year: we have failed, my
friends, to save our home. How funny that we are focused, instead, on
our homelands. It would be funny, disgraceful, and pathetic of me to
say: is there still time to save ourselves? That is the kind of nervous,
anxious selfishness that Americans are known for — and it is only if we
reject it, really, that we learn the lesson of now. Let us simply
imagine, instead, that despite all the folly and stupidity and ruin of
this age, the strongmen and the weak-minded, in those dark and
frightening nights when the rain pours and the thunder roars, we might
still light a candle for democracy, for freedom, and for truth. The
truth is that we do not deserve to be saved if we do not save them
first.
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